The School Committee received an in-depth enrollment update outlining declining student numbers, regional demographic trends, and the challenges of staffing and planning amid shifting enrollment patterns.
Presenting the report, Superintendent John Robidoux and Assistant Superintendent of Teaching and Learning Julia Ferreira emphasized that declining enrollment is not unique to the district.
“Declining enrollment trends are not specific to Marblehead. Broader statewide decline in enrollment is projected over the years,” Robidoux said, pointing to a regional low birth rate that is “directly impacting school-age enrollment” in surrounding districts as well.
Robidoux and Ferreira highlighted that enrollment losses are not concentrated in single grades, complicating staffing decisions.
“Decline in public school enrollment is rarely in large pockets… instead, decline is spread out across grade levels, therefore the reduction of students does not necessarily directly equate to similar reductions in staff,” Robidoux said.
Data shared during the presentation showed an overall decline of approximately 3.8% from 2019 to the present, averaging an “overarching reduction… over time,” Robidoux said.
He also noted a widening graduation-to-entry gap. Ferreira underscored the concern, saying the district is “graduating bigger classes, and less are coming in,” adding that many students are “just not coming in kind of from the get-go.”
Low birth rates were identified as a major long-term factor. Ferreira cited research indicating that Marblehead has “the second to lowest birth rate in the state,” while cautioning that birth rates alone do not guarantee enrollment decline. “It is a definite effect in combination with other community factors such as housing… as well as an aging population,” she said.
Housing development was repeatedly referenced as a key variable. Robidoux contrasted Marblehead with nearby communities, noting that “Salem and Swampscott… have new housing developments, new growth in those towns, so that directly impacts their enrollment differently than most of the other towns.” Ferreira pointed out that Swampscott added “305 affordable housing units” over four years, while Marblehead added fewer than 100.
The Committee also examined where students are going when they leave the district. Ferreira and Robidoux presented internal data showing transfers to private schools, charter schools, vocational schools, homeschooling, and out-of-state moves.
“These are students who are leaving the district,” Ferreira said, noting that the data reflects enrollment changes throughout the year, not just the state’s Oct. 1 reporting date.
Out-of-state moves were described as largely uncontrollable.
“Last school year, we had 56 students who moved out of state, right? They’ve left Marblehead,” Ferreira said, adding that homeschooling and private school enrollment accounted for additional losses.
Significant numbers of students were reported attending non-district schools, including “St. John’s Prep at 78, Tower School at 68, vocational school at 35,” and multiple charter schools, Robidoux said.
He acknowledged that some options are difficult to compete with, stating, “We can’t compete with… St. John’s Prep world or if a kiddo’s going to vocational for many reasons that’s very difficult to contend with.”
Committee member Jenn Schaeffner emphasized that some enrollment data has limitations.
“It is a little bit of a misnomer in the number of Marblehead resident students attending because it is possible that there were, and likely there were, Marblehead residents who never attended school, and they’re not in those groups,” she explained, noting that census data could help clarify those gaps.
Despite declining enrollment, Robidoux stressed that planning remains careful and detailed.
“We’ve looked at class by class by class… the enrollment in each class, the needs of the students regularly,” administrators said, explaining that staffing decisions require precision rather than broad cuts.
Closing the presentation, Robidoux reaffirmed his focus on educational quality.
“Our enrollment’s down, but I contend that we still provide rigorous learning for our students,” he said, adding, “I’m proud of what we’re doing… I think naming it is the first step.”
