Elizabeth Shackelford
Hamas’ attacks on innocent civilians in Israel on Oct. 7 were heinous, cruel and unforgivable. No understanding or empathy is owed to its militants.
But the Palestinian people, half of whom weren’t alive when Hamas seized power, and certainly Israel’s population deserve a better, more secure and more peaceful future after decades of conflict and war.
There is no quick fix to Israel’s security, but there are paths that make it more or less likely that this cycle of violence will continue. The path Israel’s government has taken recently, which has continued to eat away at Palestinian rights and territory, would never have secured peace for either side. A different approach now could.
Even the American public, which strongly supports Israel, understands that the status quo was untenable. In a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll conducted in September prior to the attacks, two-thirds of Americans valued the U.S.-Israeli security relationship, but majorities of people from all political backgrounds found the status quo unacceptable and preferred either a two-state or one-state solution.
Even if those numbers have changed today, the Palestinian question still demands a political answer. A military solution alone will, at best, postpone the next outbreak of violence. Factoring that into Israel’s response now provides the best hope for a better future.
It’s no easy ask under the circumstances. The Israeli government is now charged with a nearly impossible mission: Restore a sense of peace and security to its citizens in the near term while executing a plan to prevent these horrors from happening again.
The American experience, and missteps, after the Sept. 11 attacks are instructive. The U.S. government overreacted with two wars and unachievable aims. In the process, U.S. actions violated our own laws and values, undermined our moral authority, and cost us trillions of dollars and many lives. We initially had the sympathy and support of the world, but we squandered it, while laying the seeds for two decades of violence.
As one of Israel’s closest partners and friends, the U.S. government should help it avoid a similar outcome by asking the tough questions and helping Israel navigate them.
Two questions are critical: Who is the enemy, and what is the endgame?
That the enemy is Hamas might seem obvious. But Israel’s blockade of Gaza cut access to desperately needed humanitarian assistance, food, electricity and other essential goods, and a barrage of missiles into densely populated urban areas has killed thousands of civilians, including more than 700 children so far. From inside Gaza and elsewhere, it looks a lot like collective punishment of Gaza’s entire population.
Israel has every right and responsibility to respond ferociously to Hamas, but such collective punishment is unacceptable and unwise. First, it is wrong and a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Civilians should not have to pay for atrocities committed by Hamas.
It also harms Israel’s own interests. Hamas wants Israel to pursue maximalist goals inside Gaza that bog it down in war and cause abundant civilian casualties, as that would turn public opinion against Israel across the Middle East, end normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia and the region, and likely create more future terrorists than it crushes. This is why Hamas continues to use civilians as human shields.
It could also lead to a wider war, with outrage and momentum drawing in Hezbollah, Iran and even the United States. This is in no one’s interest.
Israel’s stated military goal is to destroy Hamas, but it should make clear publicly that it is aware of the risk to civilians, working hard to avoid it where possible and making every effort to let civilians get out of harm’s way.
Israel should also work with the United Nations and aid agencies to ensure that they are able to manage the inevitable humanitarian fallout, and it must communicate to the people of Gaza that they will not be permanently displaced yet again.
President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Israel in this direction now to mitigate the harm Israel’s response causes, not only to civilians but also to Israel’s future. Take the horrific hospital bombing. Israel denies doing it, and no evidence suggests otherwise, but the diplomatic fallout has been swift and crippling anyway, heightening the risk of expanding the war. This is good reason for Israel to do its best to avoid those kinds of outcomes and message its intention to do so.
Outlining a durable endgame is harder, but Israel must be thinking of that now if it wants a more peaceful future.
Hamas must be ousted, but what then? Who will govern Gaza next door to Israel in a way that would allow both to live in peace? Israel likely cannot, nor would it want the burden. Israel, its partners, countries in the region, nonviolent Palestinian actors, and regional and international organizations should be discussing today what such a transition could look like.
It’s hard to imagine now and will likely take years, but seeking a future where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace is the only way that either can.
Elizabeth Shackelford is a senior fellow on U.S. foreign policy with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is the author of “The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.”